BRI net interest margin slated for 31bp decline in 2024

NIM is expected to rebound 25bp in 2025.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) will see its net interest margin (NIM) decline 31 basis points (bp) in 2024 as loans to small businesses remain slow.

The bank’s bank-only NIM fell 30bp in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to data from UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH). This is in line with historical trends, according to UOBKH analyst Posmarito Pakpahan.

“Historically, BRI experienced NIM compression during rate hike cycles and tighter liquidity environment given most of its loans are fixed rate, which are less sensitive to changes in benchmark rate compared to its funding side,” Pakpahan noted.

Nevertheless, Pakpahan said that higher loan contributions from the bank’s higher-yield segments will help ensure that the NIM compression will not be as deep as past compressions.

A possible extension of the COVID-19 restructured loan relaxation could also benefit the bank. BRI makes up 18% of the COVID-19 restructured loans in Indonesia, at IND228t or 3.1% of its total outstanding loans.

BRI’s NIM is expected to rebound 25 bp in 2025 to 7.8%.